By Jadenne Radoc Cabahug / CascadePBS.org
Younger voters in Washington are more optimistic about the November election than the general population, in part because of their enthusiasm about the change in the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new Cascade PBS/Elway poll.
The September poll of registered voters found those 18-35 preferred Vice President Kamala Harris over former president Donald Trump 61% to 21%, with 48% saying they are certain to vote for Harris.
The divide among all voters was 53% to 32%, which also reflects another difference between the younger demographic and the general Washington voter: Far fewer of them (9%) consider themselves Republicans than do the voter population in general (24%).
The poll reached 403 registered voters statewide from Sept. 3-6 through landlines (23%), cellphone calls (28%) and online via text message invitation (49%). The poll has a margin of error at ±5 at a 95% confidence level, but that margin of error grows as you examine numbers from smaller groups, like voters 18-35. So numbers quoted in this story for that demographic should be considered interesting but not definitive, explains pollster Stuart Elway.
Graeme Huntley, 29, moved from St. Louis to Seattle two years ago to work for the federal government, but now works at the Tacoma Art Museum.
“When Biden dropped out, I think it was a breath of fresh air for a lot of people, not just for me, but for people my age,” said Huntley, a poll participant. “Even if we don’t love Harris, I think it’s a nice change of pace.”
Huntley said they try to stay independent, but this year they will be voting mostly Democratic. In partisan races, the poll found, 68% of younger voters intend to vote for the Democrats, while 19% will vote Republican.
“I think if Trump doesn’t win, it’s going to be a lot more downhill like it’s already been for the last four years,” said Spencer Stoner, 30, a truck driver from Castle Rock. “I just really hope that this is actually what the people want, and not a stolen election.”
More than half (57%) of younger voters who took the Cascade PBS/Elway poll said they felt better about their country, with 30% saying things are worse and 13% answering they don’t know.
John Lee, 30, from Seattle, the CEO and founder of Loopie, a Seattle-based mobile laundry service, said he is worried about the potential public reaction after the election.
“At this point, it’s not just a matter of if Kamala Harris will win the election, it’s a matter of if and when she does win, what’s the other party’s response going to elicit?” Lee said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., by supporters of the former president.
Lee, who considers himself a Democrat, said a childhood memory of Trump pushed him to vote against him. Lee’s mother was a reporter at The New York Times in the early 2000s, and at the vacation home of one of her colleagues, columnist Gail Collins, he saw a framed article about Trump and his real estate practices.
“I just saw in Sharpie this gentleman’s writing on this piece of paper, directed at a woman, one of my mom’s co-workers, something to the extent of ‘You have the face of a pig.’ I remembered asking my parents, or Gail, who wrote that, and they said the gentleman named Donald Trump,” Lee said. From that moment on, he viewed Trump’s name as a synonym for disrespect.
Grant Bradley, 33, a project engineer who has lived in Bellingham for more than a decade, said he feels nervous, in part because the presidential election is closer than he would like it to be.
A little more than a third, 37%, of all poll respondents said they felt positive about the election, while 27% said they felt worried. The numbers for the 18-35 crowd were similar: 38% felt positive, 32% were worried.
“I knew I wasn’t going to vote for Trump, period, and that in this election, I want to vote for the candidate who’s most likely going to defeat Trump. If we had ranked-choice voting, Kamala wouldn’t be my first choice, but I do think she’s a very strong candidate and I do really approve of her running mate, Tim Walz,” said Bradley.
Centered Elguezabal, 34, is from Northport in Stevens County but works in New York as an assistant project manager at a performance engineering company. He feels very optimistic about the election, is a Washington voter, and loves Harris.
“In 2020, I was not voting for Joe Biden, I was voting against Donald Trump. Now I actually feel like I am solidly voting, enthusiastically and happily, for somebody who is, I think, as a person, a really good person as a politician,” Elguezabal said.
His hobby is to keep up with elections all over the U.S. He follows political maps, precinct data, voter turnout, primaries, Senate races and other state races.
“I think that the upcoming generations are really energized to fix a lot of problems that we’ve watched for decades just persist and linger,” he said. “I think that as millennials start to take office and boomers are phasing out of office, that the mind-set around a lot of policy decision is changing to be a little bit more optimistic, more progressive, more pragmatic, moving forward.”
In partisan races, 26% of younger voters said they plan to vote all Democratic, 11% all Republican, 20% will split their vote and 19% didn’t say.
Elguezabal said he is confident that Democrats will hold out in both state chambers in the Washington Legislature, especially considering Trump is on the ballot.
“We saw that in 2016, we saw that in 2020 when Trump was on the ballot, Washingtonians show up and they’re not showing up for him,” Elguezabal said. In 2020 in Washington, Biden defeated Trump 58% to 39% to capture the state’s 12 electoral votes. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump here 53% to 37%.
Although an estimated 80% of poll respondents appear likely to be voting this election cycle, that number drops to about 68% for voters aged 18-35.
Among younger voters, the poll found expected results similar to those of the general population, with a bit more enthusiasm for Democratic candidates among the 18-35 crowd. Asked what issues they were most concerned about as they voted for governor, younger voters cited the economy (33%), housing/homelessness (22%) and the environment (15%).
“Like a lot of millennials, I think owning a home is a long-shot dream at this point, but eventually I would love to own a home,” Huntley said.
A top priority for them is a livable income, since costs keep rising. Huntley is also concerned about expanding access to abortion, economic policy, fair wages and climate change.
Stoner, the Republican from Castle Rock, agreed that the cost of living is a top priority, and said he is also frustrated about taxes.
“We’re hardly getting any of our own money at this point. Getting a paycheck and seeing a third of it goes to taxes and everything, it’s pretty defeating. It really doesn’t matter how many hours you put in,” Stoner said.
Elguezabal said he has friends in the Seattle area with a $1 million homebuying budget but can’t find one to buy. He recently married his partner, a radiologist, and would love to own a home, adding, “I wouldn’t even be able to buy a condo if it wasn’t for him [his partner].”
Another poll respondent, Ashe Palmer, 35, of Tacoma says homelessness is a big concern for her.
“When I moved here, the number of homeless people just smacks you in the face. I lived in First Hill, next to a shelter across the street, and I would see homeless people every day, constantly, if I went anywhere,” said Palmer, who moved to the area from Wisconsin about two years ago.
She has worked with mutual aid groups in Seattle to help homeless people, and said it’s a top legislative priority for her this election cycle.
Coming from a purple state like Wisconsin, she feels that Washington politics are more progressive and it’s easier to vote here. Palmer and her partner moved from the Midwest since as lesbians they faced discrimination. She is also Black, and noticed more diversity in Tacoma instead of being the only Black person in a space.
“I think that regardless of who becomes president or governor or anybody else, people generally have and should have an obligation to participate in their community, help out and work with people who they may or may not agree with,” Palmer said.
Republished with permission. Read the original article.
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